Using machine learning to predict antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in solid organ transplant recipients: the multicentre ORCHESTRA cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The study aim was to assess predictors of negative antibody response (AbR) in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients after the first booster of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. METHODS: Solid organ transplant recipients receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccination were prospectively enrolled (March 2021-January 2022) at six hospitals in Italy and Spain. AbR was assessed at first dose (t0), second dose (t1), 3 ± 1 month (t2), and 1 month after third dose (t3). Negative AbR at t3 was defined as an anti-receptor binding domain titre <45 BAU/mL. Machine learning models were developed to predict the individual risk of negative (vs. positive) AbR using age, type of transplant, time between transplant and vaccination, immunosuppressive drugs, type of vaccine, and graft function as covariates, subsequently assessed using a validation cohort. RESULTS: Overall, 1615 SOT recipients (1072 [66.3%] males; mean age±standard deviation [SD], 57.85 ± 13.77) were enrolled, and 1211 received three vaccination doses. Negative AbR rate decreased from 93.66% (886/946) to 21.90% (202/923) from t0 to t3. Univariate analysis showed that older patients (mean age, 60.21 ± 11.51 vs. 58.11 ± 13.08), anti-metabolites (57.9% vs. 35.1%), steroids (52.9% vs. 38.5%), recent transplantation (<3 years) (17.8% vs. 2.3%), and kidney, heart, or lung compared with liver transplantation (25%, 31.8%, 30.4% vs. 5.5%) had a higher likelihood of negative AbR. Machine learning (ML) algorithms showing best prediction performance were logistic regression (precision-recall curve-PRAUC mean 0.37 [95%CI 0.36-0.39]) and k-Nearest Neighbours (PRAUC 0.36 [0.35-0.37]). DISCUSSION: Almost a quarter of SOT recipients showed negative AbR after first booster dosage. Unfortunately, clinical information cannot efficiently predict negative AbR even with ML algorithms.

Relationship Between Immune Response to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Vaccines and Development of Breakthrough Infection in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: The CONTRAST Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients is associated with poorer antibody response (AbR) compared with non-SOT recipients. However, its impact on the risk of breakthrough infection (BI) has yet to be assessed. METHODS: Single-center prospective longitudinal cohort study enrolling adult SOT recipients who received SARS-CoV-2 vaccination during a 1-year period (February 2021 - January 2022), end of follow-up April 2022. Patients were tested for AbR at multiple time points. The primary end-point was BI (laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection ≥14 days after the second dose). Immunization (positive AbR) was considered an intermediate state between vaccination and BI. Probabilities of being in vaccination, immunization, and BI states were obtained for each type of graft and vaccination sequence using multistate survival analysis. Then, multivariable logistic regression was performed to analyze the risk of BI related to AbR levels. RESULTS: 614 SOT (275 kidney, 163 liver, 137 heart, 39 lung) recipients were included. Most patients (84.7%) received 3 vaccine doses. The first 2 consisted of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 in 73.5% and 26.5% of cases, respectively. For the third dose, mRNA-1273 was administered in 59.8% of patients. Overall, 75.4% of patients reached immunization and 18.4% developed BI. Heart transplant recipients showed the lowest probability of immunization (0.418) and the highest of BI (0.323); all mRNA-1273 vaccine sequences showed the highest probability of immunization (0.732) and the lowest of BI (0.098). Risk of BI was higher for non-high-level AbR, younger age, and shorter time from transplant. CONCLUSIONS: SOT patients with non-high-level AbR and shorter time from transplantation and heart recipients are at highest risk of BI.

Impact of Inflammation on Voriconazole Exposure in Critically ill Patients Affected by Probable COVID-19-Associated Pulmonary Aspergillosis.

(1) Background: To explore the impact of the degree of inflammation on voriconazole exposure in critically ill patients affected by COVID-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA); (2) Methods: Critically ill patients receiving TDM-guided voriconazole for the management of proven or probable CAPA between January 2021 and December 2022 were included. The concentration/dose ratio (C/D) was used as a surrogate marker of voriconazole total clearance. A receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed by using C-reactive protein (CRP) or procalcitonin (PCT) values as the test variable and voriconazole C/D ratio > 0.375 (equivalent to a trough concentration [Cmin] value of 3 mg/L normalized to the maintenance dose of 8 mg/kg/day) as the state variable. Area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated; (3) Results: Overall, 50 patients were included. The median average voriconazole Cmin was 2.47 (1.75-3.33) mg/L. The median (IQR) voriconazole concentration/dose ratio (C/D) was 0.29 (0.14-0.46). A CRP value > 11.46 mg/dL was associated with the achievement of voriconazole Cmin > 3 mg/L, with an AUC of 0.667 (95% CI 0.593-0.735; p < 0.001). A PCT value > 0.3 ng/mL was associated with the attainment of voriconazole Cmin > 3 mg/L (AUC 0.651; 95% CI 0.572-0.725; p = 0.0015). (4) Conclusions: Our findings suggest that in critically ill patients with CAPA, CRP and PCT values above the identified thresholds may cause the downregulation of voriconazole metabolism and favor voriconazole overexposure, leading to potentially toxic concentrations.

Outcome of early treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with haematological disorders.

Outcome of early treatment of COVID-19 with antivirals or anti-spike monoclonal antibodies (MABs) in patients with haematological malignancies (HM) is unknown. A retrospective study of HM patients treated for mild/moderate COVID-19 between March 2021 and July 2022 was performed. The main composite end-point was treatment failure (severe COVID-19 or COVID-19-related death). We included 328 consecutive patients who received MABs (n = 120, 37%; sotrovimab, n = 73) or antivirals (n = 208, 63%; nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, n = 116) over a median of two days after symptoms started; 111 (33.8%) had non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL); 89 (27%) were transplant/CAR-T (chimaeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy) recipients. Most infections (n = 309, 94%) occurred during the Omicron period. Failure developed in 31 patients (9.5%). Its independent predictors were older age, fewer vaccine doses, and treatment with MABs. Rate of failure was lower in the Omicron versus the pre-Omicron period (7.8% versus 36.8%, p < 0.001). During the Omicron period, predictors of failure were age, fewer vaccine doses and diagnosis of acute myeloid leukaemia/myelodysplastic syndrome (AML/MDS). Independent predictors of longer viral shedding were age, comorbidities, hospital admission at diagnosis, NHL/CLL, treatment with MABs. COVID-19-associated mortality was 3.4% (n = 11). The mortality in those who developed severe COVID-19 after early treatment was 26% in the Omicron period. Patients with HM had a significant risk of failure of early treatment, even during the Omicron period, with high mortality rate.

Effect of a Fourth Dose of mRNA Vaccine and of Immunosuppression in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Breakthrough Infections in Heart Transplant Patients.

Patients with heart transplantation (HT) have an increased risk of COVID-19 disease and the efficacy of vaccines on antibody induction is lower, even after three or four doses. The aim of our study was to assess the efficacy of four doses on infections and their interplay with immunosuppression. We included in this retrospective study all adult HT patients (12/21-11/22) without prior infection receiving a third or fourth dose of mRNA vaccine. The endpoints were infections and the combined incidence of ICU hospitalizations/death after the last dose (6-month survival rate). Among 268 patients, 62 had an infection, and 27.3% received four doses. Following multivariate analysis, three vs. four doses, mycophenolate (MMF) therapy, and HT < 5 years were associated with an increased risk of infection. MMF ≥ 2000 mg/day independently predicted infection, together with the other variables, and was associated with ICU hospitalization/death. Patients on MMF had lower levels of anti-RBD antibodies, and a positive antibody response after the third dose was associated with a lower probability of infection. In HT patients, a fourth dose of vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 reduces the risk of infection at six months. Mycophenolate, particularly at high doses, reduces the clinical effectiveness of the fourth dose and the antibody response to the vaccine.

Environmental Contamination by SARS-CoV-2 During Noninvasive Ventilation in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Environmental contamination by SARS-CoV-2 from patients with COVID-19 undergoing noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in the ICU is still under investigation. This study set out to investigate the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces near subjects receiving NIV in the ICU under controlled conditions (ie, use of dual-limb circuits, filters, adequate room ventilation). METHODS: This was a single-center, prospective, observational study in the ICU of a tertiary teaching hospital. Four surface sampling areas, at increasing distance from subject's face, were identified; and each one was sampled at fixed intervals: 6, 12, and 24 h. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 was detected with real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) test on environmental swabs; the RT-PCR assay targeted the SARS-CoV-2 virus nucleocapsid N1 and N2 genes and the human RNase P gene as internal control. RESULTS: In a total of 256 collected samples, none were positive for SARS-CoV-2 genetic material, whereas 21 samples (8.2%) tested positive for RNase P, thus demonstrating the presence of genetic material unrelated to SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that application of NIV in an appropriate environment and with correct precautions leads to no sign of surface environmental contamination. Accordingly, our data support the idea that use of NIV in the ICU is safe both for health care workers and for other patients.

Risk factors associated with bacteremia in COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care unit: a retrospective multicenter cohort study.

PURPOSE: This multicenter observational study was done to evaluate risk factors related to the development of BSI in patients admitted to ICU for COVID-19. METHODS: All patients with COVID-19 admitted in two COVID-19 dedicated ICUs in two different hospital between 02-2020 and 02-2021 were recruited. RESULT: 537 patients were included of whom 265 (49.3%) experienced at least one BSI. Patients who developed bacteremia had a higher SOFA score [10 (8-12) vs 9 (7-10), p < 0.001], had been intubated more frequently [95.8% vs 75%, p < 0.001] and for a median longer time [16 days (9-25) vs 8 days (5-14), p < 0.001]. Patients with BSI had a median longer ICU stay [18 days (12-31.5) vs 9 days (5-15), p < 0.001] and higher mortality [54% vs 42.3%, p < 0.001] than those who did not develop it. Development of BSI resulted in a higher SOFA score [aHR 1.08 (95% CI 1.03-1.12)] and a higher Charlson score [csAHR 1.15 (95% CI 1.05-1.25)]. CONCLUSION: A high SOFA score and a high Charlson score resulted associated with BSI's development. Conversely, immunosuppressive therapy like steroids and tocilizumab, has no role in increasing the risk of bacteremia.

An Improvement in the Antimicrobial Resistance Patterns of Urinary Isolates in the Out-Of-Hospital Setting following Decreased Community Use of Antibiotics during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

After the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, a decrease in antibiotic consumption in the out-of-hospital setting was observed. However, data about the impact of this reduction on antimicrobial resistance are lacking. The aim of this study was to assess antibiotic consumption and antibiotic resistance at the community level in an Italian province before and after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carried out an observational study, comparing antibiotic consumption in the community during 2019 and 2020 and the antibiotic resistance patterns of Enterobacterales cultured from urine samples from the out-of-hospital setting during the first semester of 2020 and 2021. Overall, antibiotic consumption decreased by 28% from 2019 to 2020 (from 13.9 to 9.97 DDD/1000 inhabitants/day). The main reductions involved penicillins (ATC J01C, from 6.9 to 4.8 DDD/1000 inhabitants/day, −31%), particularly amoxicillin/clavulanate (ATC J01CR02, −30%) and amoxicillin (J01CA04, −35.2%). Overall, 6445 strains of Enterobacterales were analyzed; in 2020, the susceptibility rate of amoxicillin/clavulanate increased from 57.5% to 87% among isolates from the primary care setting (p < 0.001) and from 39% to 72% (p < 0.001) among isolates from LTCF. The reduction in the community use of antibiotics observed in 2020 was followed by a change in the antimicrobial resistance patterns of urinary isolates.

Virological and histological evaluation of intestinal samples in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the pathogen responsible for pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It is a highly contagious virus which primarily affects the respiratory tract, nevertheless, the lungs are not the only target organs of the virus. The intestinal tract could represent an additional tropism site for SARS-CoV-2. Several observations have collectively suggested that enteric infections can occur in COVID-19 patients. However, the detection of viral RNA in gastrointestinal (GI) tissue samples has not been adequately investigated and results are conflicting. AIM: To detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in intestinal mucosa samples and to evaluate histological features. METHODS: The COVID-19 patients hospitalized at an Italian tertiary hospital from April 2020 to March 2021 were evaluated for enrollment in an observational, monocentric trial. The study population was composed of two groups of adult patients. In the first group (biopsy group, 30 patients), patients were eligible for inclusion if they had mild to moderate disease and if they agreed to have a rectal biopsy; in the second group (surgical specimen group, 6 patients), patients were eligible for inclusion if they underwent intestinal resection during index hospitalization. Fifty-nine intestinal mucosal samples were analyzed. RESULTS: Viral RNA was not detectable in any of the rectal biopsies performed (0/53). Histological examination showed no enterocyte damage, but slight edema of the lamina propria with mild inflammatory lymphoplasmacytic infiltration. There was no difference in inflammatory infiltrates in patients with and without GI symptoms. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in fecal samples in 6 cases out of 14 cases examined (42.9%). In the surgical specimen group, all patients underwent emergency intestinal resection. Viral RNA was detected in 2 surgical specimens of the 6 examined, both of which were from patients with active neoplastic disease. Histological examination also pointed out abundant macrophages, granulocytes and plasma cells infiltrating the muscular layer and adipose tissue, and focal vasculitis. CONCLUSION: Mild-moderate COVID-19 may not be associated with rectal infection by the virus. More comprehensive autopsies or surgical specimens are needed to provide histological evidence of intestinal infection.

Neutralizing monoclonal antibodies for early treatment of hospital‐acquired SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in hematologic patients

Efficacy of early treatment with anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2 spike protein monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) for nosocomial SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in hematologic patients is unknown. Retrospective, cohort study conducted in four Italian teaching hospitals. We included adult patients with hematologic malignancies and hospital‐acquired SARS‐CoV‐2 infection diagnosed between November 2020 and December 2021. The principal exposure variable was administration of mAbs. The primary endpoint was clinical failure dea composite outcome of mortality and/or invasive and noninvasive ventilation within 90 days from infection onset. We included 52 patients with hospital‐acquired SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. Males were 29 (60%), median age was 62 (interquartile range [IQR] 48–70). Forty‐five (86%) patients were on chemotherapy or had received chemotherapy within 30 days. MAbs were administered in 19/52 (36%) patients. Clinical failure occurred in 22 (42%) patients;21% (4/19) in mAbs group versus 54% (18/33) in non‐mAbs group (p = 0.03). Other predictors of clinical failure were older age (median [IQR] 69 [61–72] versus 58 [46–66], p = 0.001), and higher Charlson comorbidity index (median [IQR], 5 [3.25‐5] versus 3 [2–5], p = 0.002). At multivariable Cox regression model, mAbs were independently associated with a significantly lower rate of clinical failure (HR 0.11, 95% CI 0.01–0.85, p = 0.01), after adjusting for confounders. In conclusion, mAbs are promising for early treatment of hematologic patients with healthcare‐related SARS‐CoV‐2 infection.

Population Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Analysis of Dalbavancin for Long-Term Treatment of Subacute and/or Chronic Infectious Diseases: The Major Role of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring.

A population pharmacokinetic analysis of dalbavancin was conducted in patients with different infection sites. Non-linear mixed effect modeling was used for pharmacokinetic analysis and covariate evaluation. Monte Carlo simulations assessed the probability of target attainment (PTA) of total dalbavancin concentration ≥ 8.04 mg/L over time (associated with ≥90% probability of optimal pharmacodynamic target attainment of fAUC24h/MIC > 111.1 against S. aureus) associated with a single or double dosage, one week apart, of 1000 or 1500 mg in patients with different classes of renal function. Sixty-nine patients with 289 concentrations were included. Most of them (53/69, 76.8%) had bone and joint infections. A two-compartment model adequately fitted dalbavancin concentration-time data. Creatinine clearance (CLCR) was the only covariate associated with dalbavancin clearance. Monte Carlo simulations showed that, in patients with severe renal dysfunction, the 1000 mg single or double one week apart dosage may ensure optimal PTAs of 2 and 5 weeks, respectively. In patients with preserved renal function, the 1500 mg single or double one-week apart dosage may ensure optimal PTAs of 2 and 4 to 6 weeks, respectively. Therapeutic drug monitoring should be considered mandatory for managing inter-individual variability and for supporting clinicians in long-term treatments of subacute and chronic infections.

Rapid diagnostic tests in the management of pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Pneumonia is one of the main causes of mortality associated with infectious diseases worldwide. Several challenges have been identified in the management of patients with pneumonia, ranging from accurate and cost-effective microbiological investigations, prompt and adequate therapeutic management, and optimal treatment duration. AREAS COVERED: In this review, an updated summary on the current management of pneumonia patients is provided and the epidemiological issues of infectious respiratory diseases, which in the current pandemic situation are of particular concern, are addressed. The clinical and microbiological approaches to pneumonia diagnosis are reviewed, including discussion about the new molecular assays pointing out both their strengths and limitations. Finally, the current recommendations about antibiotic treatment are examined and discussed depending on the epidemiological contexts, including those with high prevalence of multidrug-resistant bacteria. EXPERT OPINION: We claim that rapid diagnostic tests, if well-positioned in the diagnostic workflow and reserved for the subset of patients who could most benefit from these technologies, may represent an interesting and feasible tool to optimize timing of targeted treatments especially in terms of early de-escalation or discontinuation of antibiotic therapy.

Relationship between Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Target Attainment and Microbiological Outcome in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients with Documented Gram-Negative Superinfections Treated with TDM-Guided Continuous-Infusion Meropenem.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) target attainment of continuous-infusion (CI) meropenem and microbiological outcome in critical COVID-19 patients with documented Gram-negative superinfections. METHODS: Patients receiving CI meropenem for documented Gram-negative infections at the COVID ICU of the IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna and undergoing therapeutic drug monitoring from January 2021 to February 2022 were retrospectively assessed. Average steady-state meropenem concentrations (Css) were calculated and the Css/MIC ratio was selected as a pharmacodynamic parameter of meropenem efficacy. The Css/MIC ratio was defined as optimal if ≥4, quasi-optimal if between 1 and 4, and suboptimal if <1. The relationship between Css/MIC and microbiological outcome was assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 43 critical COVID-19 patients with documented Gram-negative infections were retrieved. Combination therapy was implemented in 26 cases. Css/MIC ratios were optimal in 27 (62.8%), quasi-optimal in 7 (16.3%), and suboptimal in 9 cases (20.9%). Microbiological failure occurred in 21 patients (48.8%), with no difference between monotherapy and combination therapy (43.8% vs. 53.8%; p = 0.53). The microbiological failure rate was significantly lower in patients with an optimal Css/MIC ratio compared to those with a quasi-optimal or suboptimal Css/MIC ratio (33.3% vs. 75.0%; p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Suboptimal attainment of meropenem PK/PD targets may be a major determinant impacting on microbiological failure in critical COVID-19 patients with Gram-negative superinfections.

Critically ill patients with COVID-19 show lung fungal dysbiosis with reduced microbial diversity in patients colonized with Candida spp.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified interest in how the infection affects the lung microbiome of critically ill patients and how it contributes to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to characterize the lower respiratory tract mycobiome of critically ill patients with COVID-19 in comparison to patients without COVID-19. METHODS: We performed an internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) profiling with the Illumina MiSeq platform on 26 respiratory specimens from patients with COVID-19 as well as from 26 patients with non-COVID-19 pneumonia. RESULTS: Patients with COVID-19 were more likely to be colonized with Candida spp. ARDS was associated with lung dysbiosis characterized by a shift to Candida species colonization and a decrease of fungal diversity. We also observed higher bacterial phylogenetic distance among taxa in colonized patients with COVID-19. In patients with COVID-19 not colonized with Candida spp., ITS2 amplicon sequencing revealed an increase of Ascomycota unassigned spp. and 1 Aspergillus spp.-positive specimen. In addition, we found that corticosteroid therapy was frequently associated with positive Galactomannan cell wall component of Aspergillus spp. among patients with COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Our study underpins that ARDS in patients with COVID-19 is associated with lung dysbiosis and that an increased density of Ascomycota unassigned spp. is present in patients not colonized with Candida spp.

A Case Report of Tolvaptan Therapy for ADPKD Patients With COVID-19. The Need for Appropriate Counselling for Temporary Drug Discontinuation.

BACKGROUND: Patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) may require specific therapy with vasopressin receptor antagonists to slow the progression of renal disease. Because of its mechanism of action, the most common side effects are polyuria, nocturia, and polydipsia. Elevations of liver enzyme levels can also occur during treatment with Tolvaptan. Temporary drug withdrawal may be indicated if the patient is unable to hydrate adequately or if there are concomitant causes of dehydration, including major infectious events. During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, this should be considered in the management of patients on Tolvaptan therapy. CASE REPORT: We present the clinical case of a 51-year-old male with severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and ADPKD receiving Tolvaptan therapy with particular reference to the medical management of the patient during the infectious event. The patient was instructed to discontinue promptly Tolvaptan as soon as symptoms appeared. He was treated with forced hydration and symptomatic therapy. Nevertheless, a transient elevation of liver enzyme levels was detected. The timely discontinuation of Tolvaptan therapy avoided the risk of potential hepatotoxicity in a condition of known susceptibility. CONCLUSION: Tolvaptan therapy of patients with ADPKD is safe even during SARS-CoV-2 infection. There is need for appropriate and prompt patient counseling to avoid potentially adverse side effects.

Evaluation of the Kinetics of Antibody Response to COVID-19 Vaccine in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: The Prospective Multicenter ORCHESTRA Cohort.

Previous studies assessing the antibody response (AbR) to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients are limited by short follow-up, hampering the analysis of AbR kinetics. We present the ORCHESTRA SOT recipients cohort assessed for AbR at first dose (t0), second dose (t1), and within 3 ± 1 month (t2) after the first dose. We analyzed 1062 SOT patients (kidney, 63.7%; liver, 17.4%; heart, 16.7%; and lung, 2.5%) and 5045 health care workers (HCWs). The AbR rates in the SOTs and HCWs were 52.3% and 99.4%. The antibody levels were significantly higher in the HCWs than in the SOTs (p < 0.001). The kinetics showed an increase (p < 0.001) in antibody levels up to 76 days and a non-significant decrease after 118 days in the SOT recipients versus a decrease up to 76 days (p = 0.02) and a less pronounced decrease between 76 and 118 days (p = 0.04) in the HCWs. Upon multivariable analysis, liver transplant, ≥3 years from SOT, mRNA-1273, azathioprine, and longer time from t0 were associated with a positive AbR at t2. Older age, other comorbidities, mycophenolate, steroids, and impaired graft function were associated with lower AbR probability. Our results may be useful to optimize strategies of immune monitoring after COVID-19 vaccination and indications regarding timing for booster dosages calibrated on SOT patients' characteristics.

Predictive model for bacterial co-infection in patients hospitalized for COVID-19: a multicenter observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study was to build a predictive model able to stratify the risk of bacterial co-infection at hospitalization in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Multicenter observational study of adult patients hospitalized from February to December 2020 with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. Endpoint was microbiologically documented bacterial co-infection diagnosed within 72 h from hospitalization. The cohort was randomly split into derivation and validation cohort. To investigate risk factors for co-infection univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. Predictive risk score was obtained assigning a point value corresponding to ß-coefficients to the variables in the multivariable model. ROC analysis in the validation cohort was used to estimate prediction accuracy. RESULTS: Overall, 1733 patients were analyzed: 61.4% males, median age 69 years (IQR 57-80), median Charlson 3 (IQR 2-6). Co-infection was diagnosed in 110 (6.3%) patients. Empirical antibiotics were started in 64.2 and 59.5% of patients with and without co-infection (p = 0.35). At multivariable analysis in the derivation cohort: WBC ≥ 7.7/mm3, PCT ≥ 0.2 ng/mL, and Charlson index ≥ 5 were risk factors for bacterial co-infection. A point was assigned to each variable obtaining a predictive score ranging from 0 to 5. In the validation cohort, ROC analysis showed AUC of 0.83 (95%CI 0.75-0.90). The optimal cut-point was ≥2 with sensitivity 70.0%, specificity 75.9%, positive predictive value 16.0% and negative predictive value 97.5%. According to individual risk score, patients were classified at low (point 0), intermediate (point 1), and high risk (point ≥ 2). CURB-65 ≥ 2 was further proposed to identify patients at intermediate risk who would benefit from early antibiotic coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Our score may be useful in stratifying bacterial co-infection risk in COVID-19 hospitalized patients, optimizing diagnostic testing and antibiotic use.